See how we've done in past years

How To Use Our Method

Although there are various options to bet on, (for example one can bet on Over/Under, the number of runs you expect the teams to score) we only deal with betting on a team to win a particular game.

It is important to note that our betting decision depends heavily on the payoff. If the payoff is big enough, we would recommend betting on the underdog, not the favorite. For example, if our model predicts that Team 1 has a 1/3 chance of winning a game, but the payoff is well over 2 to 1, we would recommend a bet on the underdog, since then our expected return is positive. Of course, this means we should "lose" many of our bets, but over the long run (if our probabilities are correct) we should be ahead.

How to read our daily information page:

The first column is the team name (a 3 letter symbol representing the city or state, CHW for Chicago White Sox -  CHN for Chicago Cubs (National League), NYA is for New York Yankees (American League), NYN for the Mets, SFN for San Francisco, SDN for San Diego, LAA for the Los Angeles Angels and LAD for the Los Angeles Dodgers; the rest are obvious). Two consecutive lines represent visiting team followed by the home team that day.

The second column represents the starting pitcher. If the expected picture is not in the data we use to compute our probabilities, or if the pitcher is "undecided" at the time we compute our probablities, then we omit that game.

The third column is our computed probability of the team winning the day's game. (This number must lie between zero and one and closely matched games should have win probabilities around 0.5).

The fourth column is what that probability gives us as a necessary payoff to make it worthwhile to bet on the team that day. If the number listed is negative, we find the team to be the favorite and it is only worthwhile to bet on the team if you can get a more favorable (less negative) price. For example, if the number in the column is -150 and you are able to get -140, we would recommend the bet. If not, we do not recommend betting on this team. If the number listed is positive, then we recommend betting on this underdog if you can get a larger payoff. For example, if we list +140, then if you are able to get +141 or better, we recommend betting on this team. If not, we do not recommend betting on this team. Since the bookies all take a spread, you should never find us recommending a bet for both teams. Sometimes, it will not be worth it to bet on either team. Furthermore, we add an extra margin to our computed probabilities so we won't recommend betting on games where the payoff is extremely close to the bookies' implied probability limit. (Some years we decided that our probability had to be a given amount 2% or 6% more than the limit, but we don't do that anymore; the model has to imply that we expect to win a certain amount, or more, in this wager.)

The fifth column is the payoff listed in a website containing the lines (currently we base it on the final numbers from https://www.bookmakersreview.com/mlb/odds/). You may choose to use your local newspaper or what you can find online on a wagering website - (we've used donbest most often in the past). We use the final lines since the numbers aren't always available when we perform the computation and the numbers change during the day. This way we can take reasonable final numbers based on several bookmakers. The sixth column tells whether we recommend this bet ONLY given the number in the fifth column. The seventh column gives the gain or loss on the recommended action and is filled in after the game is played.

Finally, we note that to see the results for a specific date, go to the archives and click on the year, month and date at: ( the archives.) (You can put in dates all the way back to 2000 using the same syntax as in the urls for the more recent dates).